Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a weaker than expected manufacturing related report. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 114 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

Today's news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) who said that their manufacturing index for September fell to 52.0. This was lower than expected, indicating that manufacturer sentiment is waning. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it could mean slowing manufacturing activity. That could ease inflation concerns and make mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

The next relevant release doesn't come until Thursday when the Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.5%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

Overall, look for Friday to be the big day of the week. The bond market will close early Friday ahead of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen next Tuesday morning. This may create additional volatility in the markets as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007   www.AtwoodLoans.com

Monday's bond market has opened down slightly despite further stock weakness. The Dow is currently 52 points while the Nasdaq is showing a slight gain of 2 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates at Friday's levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The week does bring us four pieces of data along with a Treasury auction. Only one of the four is considered to be of high importance to the markets and it comes Thursday.

The first report is September's Existing Home Sales late Wednesday morning. Its sister report, September's New Home Sales will be posted Thursday morning. These reports give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don't see them having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts' forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing.

Overall, this is going to be a moderately busy week in the financial and mortgage markets. There is not a great deal of economic news scheduled for release in the week, so the stock markets and investor appetite for stocks compared to safety of bonds will likely be the biggest influence on mortgage rates. The Treasury auction is Thursday, when 5-year Notes will be sold. This will help gauge investor interest in bonds and could lead to a bond rally or selling. The most important day of the week is Thursday due to the Durable Goods Orders release and the Treasury sale.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Tuesday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory as investors wait for today's Fed minutes. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 32 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which is not enough to improve this morning's mortgage rates.

The first report of the week comes this afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher later today. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rates cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

The first factual economic data of the week will be posted Thursday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. This data is actually the week's least important. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.

Overall, this is going to be an interesting week for the bond market and mortgage rates. The first part of the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed minutes. Once we get into the economic data, bond traders will have more factual news to trade on rather than emotion from stock market movements. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Retail Sales and PPI reports, but today's Fed minutes may also lead to a fair amount of volatility this afternoon that could carry into tomorrow's trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

This week brings us four factual economic reports for the markets to digest. They are all scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, so the first part of the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets. In addition to the factual reports, we will also get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that can also cause movement in rates. Three of the four reports and the minutes are considered to be moderately or highly important to the bond market and mortgage rates. Therefore, we should expect to see another week of movement in rates.

The bond market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. The first report of the week comes Tuesday afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Tuesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rates cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.





The first factual economic data of the week will be posted Thursday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. This data is actually the week's least important. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.

There are three reports scheduled to be posted Friday. The first is September's Retail Sales report, which is very important to the markets. This data measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in sales.

September's Producer Price Index (PPI) is the second report of the day. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is considered to be of high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.4% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel more inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. But, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates, especially if the sales report doesn't give us stronger than expected results.

The last report of the week is October's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. With the days other two reports being of such importance to the markets, I am not expecting this index to cause much movement in rates. It is expected to show a reading of 84.0, up from September's final of 83.4.

Overall, this is going to be an interesting week for the bond market and mortgage rates. The first part of the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed minutes. Once we get into the economic data, bond traders will have more factual news to trade on rather than emotion from stock market movements. The most important day of the week is obviously Friday with the Retail Sales and PPI reports, but Tuesday's Fed minutes may also lead to a fair amount of volatility.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Thursday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory again following the release of weaker than expected manufacturing data. The stock markets are nearly flat with the Dow up 4 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we will likely still see a slight increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department said late this morning that new orders at U.S. factories fell 3.3% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is weaker than many had thought. This is good news for binds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity eases inflation concerns and makes long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department said that 317,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than expected, which also can be considered positive news for bonds. However, because it tracks only a week's worth of claims, traders generally don't pay too much attention to its results. This week is especially true with the monthly report coming tomorrow morning.

The Labor Department will also post September's Employment report early tomorrow morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

If we see weaker than expected readings, I expect bond prices to rise and mortgage rates to drop tomorrow morning. But, if the release shows stronger than forecasted readings, particularly in the number of new jobs and average earnings reading, mortgage rates may spike sharply higher tomorrow.

Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings. I am concerned that the jobs number may rebound after last month's surprise decline. Accordingly, I am going into the report cautiously and holding lock recommendations for immediate and short-term periods.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Wednesday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory after the stock markets showed early weakness. The stock markets are posting losses with the Dow down 49 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which with strength later yesterday should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There was no relevant economic news scheduled for today, so look for the stock markets to be the biggest influence in today's bond trading. If we see further weakness in the major stock indexes, we could see funds shift into bonds, especially with stocks at near record levels. This would lead to bond prices rising and mortgage rates to move lower as investors shy away from the volatility in stocks.

The Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.8%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them slightly lower tomorrow.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007   www.AtwoodLoans.com

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory as yesterday's buying seems to be carrying over to today. There was no relevant economic news scheduled for today, but early stock weakness is also contributing to this morning's gains. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 46 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There is no further important economic news scheduled for release until Thursday morning. Until then, expect the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading. With the major stock indexes on a recent rally, there is some expectation of a pullback. This could lead to shifting of funds back into bonds. However, if the rally seems to continue, bonds may suffer, leading to higher mortgage pricing.

The Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data Thursday morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.8%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007   www.AtwoodLoans.com