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Mortgage Rates Today, Nov 5th, 2007
November 5th, 2007 11:38 AM
Monday's bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from Friday's close, but we still may see a slight increase from Friday's morning rates.

This week is very light in terms of economic releases for the markets to digest, especially compared to last week. There are two monthly and one quarterly reports on tap, but only the quarterly one can be considered to be highly important. This makes it quite likely that we will see a fairly quiet week in the mortgage markets, assuming that the stock markets do not repeat last week's volatility.

The first piece of data scheduled for release comes Wednesday morning with the release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity report. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter similar to last quarter's final reading of 3.1%. This would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The final two releases of the week will be posted Friday morning. The first is September's Goods and Services Trade Balance report. The second will be November's preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment during late morning trading. Neither are considered to be major market movers, but with little data being posted this week we may see some movement in rates as a result.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market unless something totally unexpected transpires. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, I am expecting to see little movement in mortgage rates. However, I am extending the lock recommendation to short and mid term periods. This is not an indication that I necessarily feel mortgage rates will rise. It means that the risk versus reward scale is leaning towards the risk side. If mortgage rates are not likely to improve during that time frame, then there is little reward of continuing to float. Accordingly, a lock recommendation is appropriate in my opinion.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on November 5th, 2007 11:38 AMPost a Comment (0)

Fed Cut is Good News for Those Who Act Fast
November 3rd, 2007 8:22 AM
 

On the 31st of October, the Fed announced its second consecutive decrease in rates, cutting another 0.25% from the Fed Funds Rate. This change could directly impact millions of American borrowers.

Are you one of them?

Adjustable Rate Mortgages
If you currently have an ARM that is scheduled to reset in the next 14 months, then today's news is good for you. Now is the time to investigate your options. Even if you have a pre-payment penalty or you're behind in your payments, don't delay. There may still be options available to get you out of your ARM and into a mortgage you can afford, including FHA or the new FHASecure program introduced by the President.

Important: The FOMC does not meet in November, so ask yourself this: Can you really afford to roll the dice until its next meeting in mid-December?

Buying at the Bottom of the Market
If you're looking to invest in real estate in the next six to twelve months, and recent rate cuts have inspired you to start taking action, now is the time to prepare yourself for intense credit scrutiny. There are a lot of great real estate deals to be had today. But if your credit doesn't stand up in today's tight-fisted credit environment, then you could easily miss out on an exceptional opportunity.


What's the point of taking advantage of discounted home prices if you can't qualify for the right mortgage or interest rate that makes it all worthwhile? Get pre-approved now and know exactly what you can afford. And with the right REALTOR® on your side, you can have incredible negotiating power in a buyers' market!

Refinancing – Know Your Options
While rate cuts often spark ideas of refinancing, this may not be the best choice for everyone. In some cases – especially in a market where home values are declining – refinancing may be impossible or disadvantageous. Call me today for a free mortgage review. Based on your individual goals and financial needs, we can explore every available option for you and your family.

I look forward to hearing from you soon.


Posted by Scott Batt on November 3rd, 2007 8:22 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage News......Nov 2nd, 2007
November 3rd, 2007 8:15 AM
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite the release of stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are currently showing sizable losses with the Dow down 95 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is benefiting from the stock weakness again, currently up 10/32. This should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us today's key data with the release of October's Employment report. It showed that 166,000 new jobs were added, which exceeded forecasts of 80,000 by a wide margin. However, offsetting that news was a downward revision of 14,000 to September's jobs and smaller than expected increases in average hourly earnings for October and September. The unemployment rate remained at 4.7%, as it was expected to do.

September's Factory Orders data was also posted this morning, revealing a 0.2% rise in new orders for both durable and non-durable goods last month. The latest forecasts were calling for a slight decline in orders. However, this data is no important enough to trump the Employment report results and stock fears in the market. Therefore, it has had little impact on this morning's mortgage pricing.

After the very busy week that this was, next week is going to seem very light. There are only a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release and they don't start until Wednesday. This will likely mean that the stock markets will again be in the forefront and a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates.

Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview. I am holding the float recommendations through today to capture the expected pricing revisions we may see later today. But, I do expect to shift to a lock recommendation, for at least the immediate term period, early next week. If closing next week, it may be a good idea to lock a rate after this afternoon's pricing is posted.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on November 3rd, 2007 8:15 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today, Oct 22nd
October 22nd, 2007 1:48 PM
Monday's bond market has opened down slightly despite further stock weakness. The Dow is currently 52 points while the Nasdaq is showing a slight gain of 2 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates at Friday's levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The week does bring us four pieces of data along with a Treasury auction. Only one of the four is considered to be of high importance to the markets and it comes Thursday.

The first report is September's Existing Home Sales late Wednesday morning. Its sister report, September's New Home Sales will be posted Thursday morning. These reports give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don't see them having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts' forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing.

Overall, this is going to be a moderately busy week in the financial and mortgage markets. There is not a great deal of economic news scheduled for release in the week, so the stock markets and investor appetite for stocks compared to safety of bonds will likely be the biggest influence on mortgage rates. The Treasury auction is Thursday, when 5-year Notes will be sold. This will help gauge investor interest in bonds and could lead to a bond rally or selling. The most important day of the week is Thursday due to the Durable Goods Orders release and the Treasury sale.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on October 22nd, 2007 1:48 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today? Oct 9th, 2007
October 9th, 2007 12:03 PM
Tuesday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory as investors wait for today's Fed minutes. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 32 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which is not enough to improve this morning's mortgage rates.

The first report of the week comes this afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher later today. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rates cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

The first factual economic data of the week will be posted Thursday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. This data is actually the week's least important. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.

Overall, this is going to be an interesting week for the bond market and mortgage rates. The first part of the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed minutes. Once we get into the economic data, bond traders will have more factual news to trade on rather than emotion from stock market movements. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Retail Sales and PPI reports, but today's Fed minutes may also lead to a fair amount of volatility this afternoon that could carry into tomorrow's trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on October 9th, 2007 12:03 PMPost a Comment (0)

Bond Market Closed Today, What to Expect this Week
October 8th, 2007 4:05 PM
This week brings us four factual economic reports for the markets to digest. They are all scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, so the first part of the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets. In addition to the factual reports, we will also get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that can also cause movement in rates. Three of the four reports and the minutes are considered to be moderately or highly important to the bond market and mortgage rates. Therefore, we should expect to see another week of movement in rates.

The bond market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. The first report of the week comes Tuesday afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Tuesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rates cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.





The first factual economic data of the week will be posted Thursday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. This data is actually the week's least important. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.

There are three reports scheduled to be posted Friday. The first is September's Retail Sales report, which is very important to the markets. This data measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in sales.

September's Producer Price Index (PPI) is the second report of the day. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is considered to be of high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.4% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel more inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. But, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates, especially if the sales report doesn't give us stronger than expected results.

The last report of the week is October's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. With the days other two reports being of such importance to the markets, I am not expecting this index to cause much movement in rates. It is expected to show a reading of 84.0, up from September's final of 83.4.

Overall, this is going to be an interesting week for the bond market and mortgage rates. The first part of the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed minutes. Once we get into the economic data, bond traders will have more factual news to trade on rather than emotion from stock market movements. The most important day of the week is obviously Friday with the Retail Sales and PPI reports, but Tuesday's Fed minutes may also lead to a fair amount of volatility.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on October 8th, 2007 4:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today! Oct 4th 2007
October 4th, 2007 5:29 PM
Thursday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory again following the release of weaker than expected manufacturing data. The stock markets are nearly flat with the Dow up 4 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we will likely still see a slight increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department said late this morning that new orders at U.S. factories fell 3.3% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is weaker than many had thought. This is good news for binds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity eases inflation concerns and makes long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department said that 317,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than expected, which also can be considered positive news for bonds. However, because it tracks only a week's worth of claims, traders generally don't pay too much attention to its results. This week is especially true with the monthly report coming tomorrow morning.

The Labor Department will also post September's Employment report early tomorrow morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

If we see weaker than expected readings, I expect bond prices to rise and mortgage rates to drop tomorrow morning. But, if the release shows stronger than forecasted readings, particularly in the number of new jobs and average earnings reading, mortgage rates may spike sharply higher tomorrow.

Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings. I am concerned that the jobs number may rebound after last month's surprise decline. Accordingly, I am going into the report cautiously and holding lock recommendations for immediate and short-term periods.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on October 4th, 2007 5:29 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today! Oct 3rd, 2007
October 3rd, 2007 10:13 AM
Wednesday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory after the stock markets showed early weakness. The stock markets are posting losses with the Dow down 49 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which with strength later yesterday should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There was no relevant economic news scheduled for today, so look for the stock markets to be the biggest influence in today's bond trading. If we see further weakness in the major stock indexes, we could see funds shift into bonds, especially with stocks at near record levels. This would lead to bond prices rising and mortgage rates to move lower as investors shy away from the volatility in stocks.

The Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.8%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them slightly lower tomorrow.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007
 
www.AtwoodLoans.com

Posted by Scott Batt on October 3rd, 2007 10:13 AMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today! Oct 2nd 2007
October 2nd, 2007 12:39 PM

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory as yesterday's buying seems to be carrying over to today. There was no relevant economic news scheduled for today, but early stock weakness is also contributing to this morning's gains. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 46 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There is no further important economic news scheduled for release until Thursday morning. Until then, expect the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading. With the major stock indexes on a recent rally, there is some expectation of a pullback. This could lead to shifting of funds back into bonds. However, if the rally seems to continue, bonds may suffer, leading to higher mortgage pricing.

The Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data Thursday morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.8%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007
 
www.AtwoodLoans.com

Posted by Scott Batt on October 2nd, 2007 12:39 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Market Today, Oct 1st 2007
October 1st, 2007 3:39 PM
Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a weaker than expected manufacturing related report. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 114 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

Today's news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) who said that their manufacturing index for September fell to 52.0. This was lower than expected, indicating that manufacturer sentiment is waning. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it could mean slowing manufacturing activity. That could ease inflation concerns and make mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

The next relevant release doesn't come until Thursday when the Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.5%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

Overall, look for Friday to be the big day of the week. The bond market will close early Friday ahead of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen next Tuesday morning. This may create additional volatility in the markets as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007
 
www.AtwoodLoans.com

Posted by Scott Batt on October 1st, 2007 3:39 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today! Sept 27th 2007
September 27th, 2007 12:58 PM
Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. None of this morning's data was considered to be highly important, so the reaction has been muted. The stock markets are nearly unchanged with the Dow up 2 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which should push this morning's mortgage rates slightly lower.

The final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed that the economy grew at a 3.8% annual pace during the April through June quarter. This was slightly lower than the 3.9% that was expected, but since this data is now aged and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, its results had little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

The second release of the day was August's New Home Sales that showed an 8.3% decline in sales. This was a much larger drop than was expected, a 7-year low and indicates that the housing sector is still not at the bottom. This is generally good news for bonds but as with the GDP report, it was not important enough to heavily influence trading or rates.

The Labor Department said that 298,000 new claims for benefits were files last week. This was a sizable difference from the 320,000 that was expected and can be considered negative news for bonds. But since it tracks only a week's worth of claims, it has had a minimal affect on rates.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. August's Personal Income and Outlays and the revised reading to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for September. The first will be released early morning and gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. It is expected to show a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.4% increase in spending.

The Michigan index measures consumer confidence and is believed to indicate future consumer spending strength. The preliminary release earlier this month revealed an 83.8 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a small upward revision, bringing the index around the 84.0 level. A lower reading should help improve mortgage rates tomorrow morning, depending on the results of the income and spending data.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on September 27th, 2007 12:58 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage Rates Today! Sept 26th 2007
September 26th, 2007 11:53 AM
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are posting sizable gains with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department said that new orders for big-ticket items fell 4.9% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected, but this data can be quite volatile due to aircraft and transportation related orders. Still, the news is somewhat favorable to bonds and mortgage rates, but today's stock gains have prevented much interest in bonds.

There are two pieces of relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don't see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight decline from the previous estimate of a 4.0% annual rate.

The second is the release of August's New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of new homes fell in August. As was the case with Tuesday's Existing Home Sales data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will also give last week's unemployment claim numbers, which are expected to come in at 320,000 new claims. Unless this figure varies greatly from forecasts, it will likely have little impact on tomorrow's mortgage pricing.



©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on September 26th, 2007 11:53 AMPost a Comment (0)

What Rates are Doing Today
September 25th, 2007 11:23 AM

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected consumer confidence reading. The stock markets are posting moderate gains again with the Dow up 17 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Conference Board posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September late this morning, showing a reading of 99.8. This was much lower than the 104.5 that was expected and was the lowest reading since November 2005. That indicates that consumers were far less confident in their own financial situations than many had thought. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending.

The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales fell 4.3% last month, which was close to forecasts. This was the sixth consecutive monthly drop in sales, indicating that that the housing sector continues to weaken. However, this data is not considered to be highly important to mortgage bonds, therefore, its results have failed to influence rates this morning.

August's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 3.5%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector that would likely help push mortgage rates higher Wednesday.

 

Mortgage Commentary 2007


Posted by Scott Batt on September 25th, 2007 11:23 AMPost a Comment (0)

Monday's Rate Advice
September 24th, 2007 9:42 AM
This week brings us the release of seven economic reports for the bond market to digest. Three of them are considered to be of low importance and likely will have little impact on mortgage rates. With data scheduled for release each day except tomorrow, we may see an active week in the bond and mortgage markets.

The first important data of the week is Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline from last month's reading, indicating that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 104.5, down from August's 105.0. If we see a larger than expected decline, we should see the bond market move higher and mortgage rates drop Tuesday.

The second piece of data also comes Tuesday morning with the release of August's Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors posts this data, giving us an indication of housing sector strength by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show a decline from July's sales, however, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market.

August's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early Wednesday morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 2.5%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Wednesday. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector that would likely help push mortgage rates higher Wednesday.

The first of Thursday's data is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don't see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight decline from the previous estimate of a 4.0% annual rate.

Also Thursday morning will be the release of August's New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of new homes fell in August. As with Tuesday's Existing Home Sales data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on mortgage rates.

There are two reports scheduled for release Friday morning. August's Personal Income and Outlays and the revised reading to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for September. The first will be released early morning and gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. It is expected to show a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.4% increase in spending.

The Michigan index measures consumer confidence and is believed to indicate future consumer spending strength. The preliminary release earlier this month revealed an 83.8 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a small upward revision, bringing the index around the 84.0 level. A lower reading should help improve mortgage rates Friday morning, depending on the results of the income and spending data.

Overall, this will likely be a fairly active week for mortgage rates. The most important day will either be Tuesday or Wednesday due to the importance of the date being posted those days. For the time being, I am holding the lock recommendations for the immediate, short-term and mid-term periods. If this week's data does indeed show weaker than expected results, I may shift to float across the board. Until we get those assurances, I am concerned that we may see pressure in bonds, possibly leading to higher mortgage rates in the immediate future.


©Mortgage Commentary 2007

Posted by Scott Batt on September 24th, 2007 9:42 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rates to Worsen, Fed Cut Hurt Us
September 20th, 2007 11:53 AM

Hello All,

As we were talking yesterday, we found out that all though the Fed Rate Cut did not directly impact rates, the wave caused by this is hurting now. Bonds are currently down 38 basis points and we will more thank likely be seeing another mid day price change for the worst.

I know this topic can be confusing, so let me try to explain what is going on. The Fed's number one concern is containing inflation. This is currently at 2.2%. The target for the fed is 2% inflation per year. What impacts inflation, well we do......every time we buy an kind of goods from any retailer, we are impacting inflation. This drives the stock market and in return takes money out of bonds, resulting in worse rates. The reason the Fed Rate Hike in the first place was to slow buying and contain inflation from going up.

As time passes, we will see that the now 1/2% lower fed funds rate will continue to make an impact in wall street, our everyday lives, and the way investors are treating this, as a now stronger economy. Keep in mind, the stronger the economy, the worse the mortgage rates.

 

Thanks for Reading......Please feel free to respond or call 573-268-4698.


Posted by Scott Batt on September 20th, 2007 11:53 AMPost a Comment (0)

Beware of Internet Lenders, Bank Rate gets a Lawsuit
September 19th, 2007 10:12 PM

 

Just like King Kong clutching the top of the Empire State Building…Bankrate, the "800-pound Gorilla" of online home loan rates is falling under fire. The Bankrate website draws millions of visitors, as it promises to give a listing of companies and their rate and cost offerings for mortgage loans, and even passes that information on to most of America's largest newspapers as fact. It proclaims itself to be a tool for the consumer, just delivering information and advice…but as many reputable mortgage lenders have known all along, it turns out that consumers are finding the reality of Bankrate to be a little different.

A lawsuit is in the works against Bankrate, after hundreds of consumers complained about lenders who failed to deliver the rates and terms they promised on the website. In fact, one lender actually told a Bankrate employee that a consumer would need a "direct pipeline to God" in order to qualify for the rates and terms they advertise on the site. Why would a lender post rates and terms they are unwilling or unable to honor? To lure in consumers who truly want to believe that they are getting an interest rate or cost package that is significantly lower than all the competition. And by the time the consumer finds out they are not getting the package they were promised, they likely have wasted enough valuable time that they feel somewhat stuck to use whatever terms the lender hauls out.

Of course there are real reasons that the terms of a loan package can change mid-stream. When working with a reputable lender, it would generally only be caused by a change from what was submitted on the loan application. Some examples of this include a change in credit, income, employment, debts or assets.

So are there any reputable lenders on Bankrate? Yes, of course. And some of those lenders were the ones who prompted the lawsuit in the first place. As they were posting real interest rates and terms they could actually honor, they could see that consumers would instead be contacting the less-reputable lenders who were posting completely unrealistic rate and cost offers. And the consumer might not find out the difference until it was too late. Mortgage lenders get their money from essentially the same places - so anytime there is a very large difference between quotes on identical programs, it pays to ask some questions.

Bottom line - the internet at large can be a great place to gain basic trends and information about a home loan, but the Bankrate lawsuit illustrates the need to work with a Trusted Advisor. A home loan is generally the largest financial transaction of your entire life - working with a real professional who can advise you on correct strategies and programs for your needs is a must. And like your mom or dad always used to say - you get what you pay for, and solid advice from a real professional may cost more than a bargain basement operation.

Most importantly, remember that the absolute lowest rate and terms on the WRONG financial strategy or loan program for your life will prove to be far more costly than a competitive rate package on the RIGHT strategy, which correctly fits your financial goals and needs.


Posted by Scott Batt on September 19th, 2007 10:12 PMPost a Comment (0)

Fed Cuts Rate .5% Now at 4.75%
September 18th, 2007 4:29 PM
Lower Fed Rate Means Opportunities on the Rise

For the first time in more than four years, the Federal Reserve cut its Fed Funds Rate, which directly impacts millions of American borrowers. And while this important decision has many implications, there’s still some debate among experts about what this means to the economy as a whole.

The Federal Reserve meets again in six weeks, and no one is certain how market volatility and inflation concerns will affect their future policy and decision-making. Bottom line: Take advantage of this opportunity while you still can. Call me right away.

  • If you’re looking to capture a lower interest rate for refinancing or buying a home, this could be your best opportunity to do so.
  • If you have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage, while this rate cut might help to improve your situation, now is the time to refinance into a fixed-rate loan.
  • If you have a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) or credit cards tied to the Prime Rate, the Fed’s cut in the Fed Funds Rate just put a little money in your pocket.

Borrowers waiting for a lower fixed-rate mortgage may be waiting for a long time. The chart below clearly shows how Fed Funds Rate cuts do not translate into cuts in fixed-rate mortgages. In January 2001, the Fed Funds Rate was at 6% and 30-year fixed rates averaged 7.03%. By December 2001, following 4.25% in cuts throughout the year, home loan rates were actually up to 7.07%.

Yes, we may experience some temporary improvements in rates in the coming weeks, but the markets will remain volatile as long as inflation and recession are a possible threat to the Federal Reserve's long-term economic policies.

As always, feel free to call or email with any quesitons.

 

Scott Batt

573-268-4698

 


Posted by Scott Batt on September 18th, 2007 4:29 PMPost a Comment (0)

Fed Funds Rate Cut is Possible Today
September 18th, 2007 4:27 PM

Good Morning All,

I would like to let everyone know that a rate cut is possible by the Fed today. This will help the short term rates by reducing the Fed Funds Rate, which is a factor for products such as HELOC's, credit cards, and even car loans. If this should happen it will show that the Fed feels inflation has been contained and this could cause rates to go up. The reason for this is investors will hear of the cut and feel that the economy is doing good. Money will then come out of our mortgage backed bonds and in to stocks. On the other hand if the Fed does not cut, we could see some better rates today as money will go back in to bonds from stocks and will bump our bond prices. I will let everyone know the outcome later this afternoon.

I hope that everyone has a great day and please feel free to call me if you should have any questions.

Scott Batt


Posted by Scott Batt on September 18th, 2007 4:27 PMPost a Comment (0)

Top 5 mistakes while signing a real estate purchase contract
August 28th, 2007 10:15 PM

Buying real estate can be extremely demanding. It requires a whole lot of diligence on part of the buyer, more so, when drafting the terms and conditions of the purchase offer. You may hire an attorney or another real estate agent to create a contract. Nevertheless, you should always ensure that you completely understand every term of the contract. Here are a few blunders that you are better off avoiding.

 

1. I overlooked the fine print!

 

This is probably the most common mistake buyers make. Many residential purchase contracts include standard real estate boilerplate text. Many firms, in fact, use preprinted forms. While preprinted or computerized forms have improved efficiency, they sometimes do so at the expense of the buyer.

 

It is recommended that you get a copy of the form well in advance and carefully study it. Highlight every term you are not comfortable with and would like to modify. This is a neat tactic to clearly mark buyer unfriendly fine print.

 

2. Were basic elements included?

 

Buyers often ignore cross-checking the contract for basic elements. These are certain terms that should be included in every real estate contract. Some of the absolute necessary points to be included are the address of the property, valuation and condition of the property, amenities provided, contingencies, finance terms, purchase price, and closing date.

 

The contract should also include the time you offer the seller to decide on your offer. Include passing clear title to the property, maintaining the property in its present condition until closing, making any agreed-upon repairs and delivering the property clean and free of personal possessions and debris.  

 

3. My contract has improper withdrawal and problem solving terms

 

Clearly delineate the conditions that would allow you from withdrawing the agreement. Also list all responsibilities of the seller before you take possession of the house. The contract should also include terms that allow for smooth resolution of problems. This will help you deal better with any inconsistencies in the house.

 

4. The contract doesn't deal with sellers' contingencies

 

Many contracts rely heavily on seller conditions. For instance, some sellers may include a clause that allows them to only sell a house provided they purchase another house. You should always look to minimize such contingencies by either excluding these conditions or looking for sellers who are already obligated to buy another house.

 

5. But I already have a verbal contract!

This is the gravest of mistakes you could possibly make. No matter how unimportant a condition is, always make sure that you have it in writing. Verbal agreements are not binding. The seller may be your best buddy, but hey in that case he shouldn't have a problem with written agreements.


Posted by Scott Batt on August 28th, 2007 10:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

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